Vietnam national team in the ASEAN Cup semifinals: A grueling cycle

There is perhaps no more accurate description for the win against Malaysia than "easy yet still tough." Malaysia almost drained every ounce of energy and their best available personnel to try to keep the game even. Around the 70th minute, the whole Malaysian team could no longer speed up even when they had chances to break. However, it was only thanks to an own goal, a blunder resulting from sheer fatigue, that Kim Sang‑sik's men achieved a two‑goal victory, which appeared inevitable when looking at the pre‑match odds. 

On the slippery, ginger‑colored grass, the ball rolled slower than usual. Malaysia employed a high‑press, physical style aimed at disrupting Vietnam's possession game. They largely succeeded in the first half, forcing Vietnam to resort to long balls over the top.

As is often the case, Vietnam struggled to play their best football against a team that pressed tightly on an unfamiliar surface. Most of the first half was marked by misplaced passes and an inability to launch attacks from the flanks.

The opening goal was a rare moment where Vietnam executed two things at once: initiating an attack with a long ball and delivering a precise cross from the byline for Xuân Son to leap and head home.

The victory was not unexpected, but the method of achieving it was quite arduous. It's hard to imagine what would have happened in the second half without Xuân Son's diving header. Not because Vietnam didn't deserve the win, but because one gets the feeling that Kim Sang‑sik's team always manages to make things more difficult for themselves. For example, two occasions where goalkeeper Patrik Lê Giang rushed out when the center‑backs still had control. Both times, our players collided with each other.

Put simply, this was a match where Malaysia could hardly get any points against Vietnam. The contest vividly illustrated the crisis in Malaysian football: a substandard pitch, empty stands, and players largely outmatched in physique and endurance. Having once beaten Vietnam 4‑0 just a year earlier, they are now a diminished version, in decline across every aspect.

Malaysia's defeat meant that for the first time since 2004, when the ASEAN championship switched to a home‑and‑away format, both home teams lost their first‑leg semifinal matches.

Naturally, a home defeat does not eliminate all hope. History records two comebacks. In 2004, Indonesia lost 1‑2 at home to Malaysia but rebounded with a 4‑1 win in the return leg in Kuala Lumpur. A decade later, in the 2014 AFF Cup, Vietnam won 2‑1 in Kuala Lumpur only to unexpectedly lose 2‑4 at Mỹ Đình.

However, that was a completely different era for Southeast Asian football. Back then, success was fairly distributed among champions such as Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand, while Indonesia made three final appearances.

Since 2018, Vietnam and Thailand have met in the final three times, with each claiming two titles. Barring any upset in the second leg, this will be the third time in the last four editions that the final becomes a "private affair" between Vietnam and Thailand.

The events of the two first‑leg semifinals depict the full reality of Southeast Asian football today. Thailand and Vietnam entered the semifinals as the top scorers and the stingiest defenses among the tournament's teams.

Both sides further asserted their superiority by building two‑goal leads ahead of the home return legs. Consider the statistics: For the first time ever, Thailand held just 27% possession against a fellow Southeast Asian team, even attempted fewer shots on target, yet still secured a 3‑1 victory with minimal effort.

Regarding Vietnam, as noted, the difficulty against Malaysia stemmed more from our own inconsistent form from match to match than from any genuine quality of the home side.

However, whether with the ease of Thailand or the drama of Vietnam, both point to the same reality: two‑goal wins over Malaysia or Singapore ought not be interpreted as proof that Thailand and Vietnam are elevating their level. Instead, they more precisely indicate the opposite: the regional standard is dropping at a pace faster than the leading duo can forge ahead.

Facing a Singapore side that had given Vietnam a tough time in the group stage, Thailand comfortably dispatched them despite not fielding their strongest XI. Yet for Thailand, if they wish to discuss elevating their standards, they need to consider overcoming Vietnam, given the two are likely to meet in the final. That creates a competitive cycle, but is it a cause for joy?